Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 1.09.2014 to 05.09.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 1.09.2014 to 05.09.2014

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Indian stock indices are seen trading firm this week after they ended at record closing

levels on Thursday, and as long positions were rolled into the September derivatives

series.

The better than estimated GDP growth data outcome is also expected to boost the positive

sentiment in market.

Indian economy expanded 5.7 percent in the first quarter of FY15, the highest in nine

quarters, against a growth of 4.6 percent in Q4 of 2013-14. The economy grew 4.7

percent in the year-ago period. The economy grew at its highest pace since the fourth

quarter of FY12.

However, Supreme Court hearing on coal block allocations today will be the key in

determining the trend for this week. Earlier last week, the apex court declared all coal

block allocations since 1993 as illegal, saying that no proper procedure was followed

while awarding these blocks.

The threat that the apex court may de-allocate the coal blocks remains and Metal, Mining,

and power sector stocks may trade subdued because of that. Jindal Steel and Power,

which took the maximum beating from the Supreme Court's ruling earlier this week, will

be closely watched. The stock ended down 4.6% at Rs.233. From the beginning of last

week, the stock has lost 26.3%.

Automobile stocks will also be in focus as companies release sales data for August which

is expected that the auto-makers to report strong sales numbers for August, aided by

lower base effect.

The Nifty is seen to breach 8000 perhaps in this week as the fresh F&O expiry is going to

start with the positive rollovers in index and in core sector stocks.

Nifty is seen drawing strong support between 7850-7900 points. The resistance levels is being stood at 8050/8100 levels.

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 25.08.2014 to 28.08.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 25.08.2014 to 28.08.2014

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks indices are likely to be volatile next week as rollovers get underway ahead of the

expiry of the August futures and options contract on Thursday. Thursday will also be the

last trading day next week for markets on account of Ganesh Chaturthi holiday on Friday.

Despite the likely choppiness, the underlying sentiment for equities will be positive. Most

on the Street expect the National Stock Exchange's 50-stock Nifty to test 8000 points.

The 8000-points milestone for Nifty has been long expected, but so far the index has not

been able to breach it because of very strong resistance. However, if it does cross 8000, it

would be another lifetime high for Nifty, as its current lifetime high is 7929.05, recorded

yesterday.

After a mostly subdued session, stock indices yesterday ended marginally up, led by

gains in stocks of banks and information technology companies. Nifty ended at 7913.20,

up 22.10 points or 0.3%. Intraday, it hit a low of 7900.05 and lifetime high of 7929.05.

The S&P BSE's 30-share Sensex ended at 26419.55, up 59.44 points or 0.2%, after

touching a low of 26383.16 and a high of 26508.27. We see 7800 as support for Nifty

next week. On Monday, indices will take cues from US Federal Reserve Chair Janet

Yellen's speech yesterday at a conference in Jackson Hole, US. Speculation over the

timeline in change of US' low interest rate policy continues amidst talk of Jackson Hole

being a currency event.

Among sectors, most are positive on the banking and information technology space and

expect them to extend gains. Yesterday, Bank Nifty hit a lifetime high of 15865.30

points, but ended at 15819.15 points, up 1% from the previous close. On the other hand,

stocks in the fast moving consumer goods and pharmaceutical space are seen weak, as

traders expect them to consolidate. Defensive sectors like pharma and FMCG will

consolidate although FMCG stocks would also depend on monsoons. Monsoons will also

act as a trigger for the broader market. In the short term, geo-political issues and monsoons will be the triggers to track.

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.08.2014 to 22.08.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.08.2014 to 22.08.2014

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

With the earnings season ending today and no major triggers on the horizon, market

participants expect share indices to move in a narrow range next week. Global

developments will also be closely watched out for no major events are scheduled on the

domestic front. In global events, minutes of the US Federal Reserve's July policy meeting

will be released on Wednesday.

Back home, the underlying sentiment is positive with the indices having risen for four

straight sessions led by strong buying in large-cap stocks.

We expect indices to touch lifetime highs next week on the back of the positive

sentiment. Nifty may cross the 7800 mark and go above 7840. Nifty could even move up

to 7900 points if the index sustains above 7800-7825 points.

Thursday, National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty ended at 7791.70, up 52.15 points or

0.7% from close Wednesday. Intraday, the index touched a low of 7739.10 and high of

7796.10. The S&P BSE's 30-share Sensex closed at 26103.23, up 184.28 points or 0.7%.

During the day, it moved between a low of 25945.35 and a high of 26135.00. Nifty had touched a record high of 7840.95 and Sensex of 26300.17 on Jul 25.

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 11.08.2014 to 14.08.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 11.08.2014 to 14.08.2014

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Stock indices will take cues from global developments in West Asia and Russia next

week, with the bias having turned negative due to the sharp fall seen in the last three

sessions. Aside from the global developments, market participants will also closely

watch movement of the rupee against the dollar.

While some market participants see no reversal in sentiment till these global concerns

abate, others said a bounce-back may be seen at lower levels and one should adopt a 'buy

on dips' strategy. Investors are advised to utilise the opportunity to buy into quality

stocks with strong management pedigree. From a medium- to long-term perspective, we

are still in a bull market.

Next week, the National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen taking support at 7500 points.

But if the index breaches this level, it is seen falling all the way down to 7400 points.

Resistance to the 50-share index is pegged at around 7700 points.

On yesterday, Nifty ended at 7568.55, down 80.70 points or 1.1% from the previous

close. During the day, the index slipped below the 7550 points to touch a low of 7540.10

points, and recorded a high of 7592.45 points.

S&P BSE's 30-share Sensex ended at 25329.14, down 259.87 points or 1%. Sensex

touched a low of 25232.82 and a high of 25406.87 intraday. Apart from global events,

market participants will watch out for Apr-Jun earnings and economic data releases.

Among Nifty constituents, GAIL India, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Tata Motors, Bharat

Petroleum Corp, Coal India, NMDC and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

Bosch, Jain Irrigation Systems, Jet Airways India, Balaji Telefilms, Sadbhav

Engineering, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Jaiprakash Associates and United Breweries

Holdings, among others, will also detail earnings.

On Tuesday, the Central Statistics Office will release the Index of Industrial Production data for June and combined inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for July.

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 04.08.2014 to 08.08.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 04.08.2014 to 08.08.2014

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Indices are expected to witness volatility next week amid hectic news flow from the

Reserve Bank of India's third bi-monthly monetary policy review on Tuesday, corporate

earnings for Apr-Jun and global markets.

The RBI is likely to keep the policy repo rate at 8.00%, given the lack of clarity on

inflation levels due to the high base effect. With the delayed, albeit recovering, monsoons

too playing a part in shaping expectations of interest rates and inflation, the prevailing

sense of uncertainty may lead the central bank into maintaining status quo and

waiting for things to unfold.

Inflation is still a challenge. While the most recent inflation print for June was milder

than expected, rising food prices due to weak monsoon rains remain a concern.

Apart from the RBI, investor attention will be drawn by companies reporting Apr-Jun

results, including Power Grid Corp of India, Hero MotoCorp, Jindal Steel and Power and

banking major State Bank of India, all Nifty majors.

In the non-Nifty pack, Andhra Bank, Godrej Properties, Marico, Oriental Bank of

Commerce, Punj Lloyd, Tata Communications, Crompton Greaves, Adani Ports and

Special Economic Zone, Adani Power, Apollo Tyres, GlaxosmithKline Consumer

Healthcare, and Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) are among the companies that will detail

their earnings.

Amid all this, developments in global markets and the rupee movement will be closely

watched.

Yesterday, the rupee slumped for the second consecutive session to end at an over fourmonth

low against the US currency as the dollar gained broadly on expectation that positive economic data from the US could prompt the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner.

As the rupee hit an over four-month low, breaching the 61-per-dollar mark, equities took

a beating too, to end at an over two-week low, amid the selloff in global equities.

Posting its biggest drop in over three weeks, the National Stock Exchange's 50-share

Nifty breached the 7600-point mark for the first time since Jul 8. The Nifty closed at

7602.60, down 118.70 points. The 30-share S&P BSE Sensex posted a loss of 414.13

points, ending at 25480.84, down 1.6%.

Intraday, the Nifty moved between 7593.90 points and 7716.70 points, while the Sensex

moved between 25459.13 and 25862.68 points. Next week, the Nifty is seen moving in a

range of 7450-7700 points. In case of extreme selloff, 7400 points is expected to act as support for the Nifty.

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 28.07.2014 to 01.08.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 28.07.2014 to 01.08.2014

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

In the run-up to the expiry of the July futures and options contracts next week,

benchmark indices are expected to be volatile. Trading action may remain stock-specific

amid earnings for the June quarter. Volatility is expected to spike up as the expiry week

is shortened by a holiday on Tuesday for Ramzan. July derivatives contracts will expire

on Thursday.

A host of index heavyweights will detail their Apr-Jun earnings next week. These include

fast moving consumer goods behemoths Hindustan Unilever and ITC, which will

announce their results on Monday and Tuesday respectively. Capital goods major and

market trendsetter Larsen & Toubro will also detail its earnings on Monday.

Through the week, Bank of Baroda, Bharti Airtel, IDFC, Sesa Sterlite, Dr.Reddy's

Laboratories, Lupin, DLF, HCL Technologies, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki India, NTPC

and Tech Mahindra will report their earnings for the Apr-Jun period. United Spirits will

announce its numbers for the quarter ended March on Friday.

On the global front, investor attention will be on the two-day meeting of the US Federal

Open Market Committee, which concludes on Wednesday. The impact of the meeting's

outcome on Indian equities will be evident on Thursday. Towards the end of the week,

investor attention will turn to automobile sales numbers. From August 1 onwards, July

sales of auto players will start trickling in.

Through the action-packed next week, the National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty is

seen moving in the range of 7650-7900 points. Yesterday, benchmark indices ended 0.5%

lower, coming out of eight consecutive sessions of gains, as profits were taken off the

table post the breathless rally.

Even though the National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty and the 30-share S&P BSE

Sensex remained largely in the red throughout the session, a brief recovery saw them

hitting lifetime highs of 7540.95 points and 26300.17 points respectively.

Intraday, the Nifty hit a low of 7748.60 points, while the Sensex's low was 26007.31

points. The Nifty closed at 7790.45, down 40.15 points or 0.5%, and the Sensex closed at 26126.75, down 145.10 points or 0.5%. 

( For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in )

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 21.07.2014 to 25.07.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 21.07.2014 to 25.07.2014

(For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in)

Corporate earnings and trend in the overseas markets will lend cues to the local equities

next week, with the underlying sentiment being positive after they ended at an over

one-week high yesterday. Market participants expect the National Stock Exchange's Nifty

to move in the 7550-7750 range. Indices may touch lifetime highs next week, but a few

others said if Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Palestine tensions escalate, it may have a

negative bearing on the domestic share indices.

If geopolitical tensions continue, and then the Nifty may not be able to cross 7800. The

Nifty and the S&P BSE Sensex had touched record highs of 7808.85 and 26190.44,

respectively, on Jul 8. Yesterday, the 50-share Nifty ended at 7663.90, up 23.45 points

or 0.3% from close Thursday. The index tested a low of 7595.50 and a high of 7685.00

during the day. The 30-share Sensex closed at 25641.56, up 80.40 points or 0.3%. The

index moved between 25441.24 and 25713.40 during the day. 

Nifty constituents reporting Apr-Jun earnings next week are Housing Development Finance Corp, HDFC

Bank, Asian Paints, Axis Bank, ACC, Ambuja Cements, Wipro and Punjab National Bank.

Reliance Industries and UltraTech Cement, which will report Apr-Jun earnings on today,

will react to the same in Monday's session. The refining behemoth is likely to report

muted set of numbers for the quarter as moderation in refining and petrochemicals

margins will weigh on its bottomline. Lower gas output will also continue to be a drag.

We expect RIL to report a rise of just 1% year-on-year in net profit for Apr-Jun at 54.03

bln rupees while top line is expected to increase 12% to 980.63 bln rupees. Gross

refining margin is seen in the range of $8.5-$8.9 a barrel. If Reliance (Industries) gives

good numbers, then on Monday, market will see a gap-up opening.

Cement sector giant UltraTech Cement is also likely to report a muted set of numbers.

We expect UltraTech to post a net profit growth of 1% year-on-year to 6.8 bln rupees

and net sales of 55.80 bln rupees, up 12% on-year. Among sectors, market participants

are positive on infrastructure, bank and real estate stocks. In the banking space, are

positive on large-cap names like ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Axis Bank and Punjab National Bank.

(For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09 to 13.Jun.2014

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09 to 13.Jun.2014

(For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in)

After the dream run this week that saw benchmark indices rise 5% and scale record highs,

more gains are on the cards for equities next week. All indicators are in favour of the

sustainable rise to continue but with intermediate corrective moves. This time, it's

important that retail investors maintain a balance in their trading and investment activities

as both are equally important.

Today, the National Stock Exchange Nifty and the S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.5% each and

touched lifetime highs on the back of strong buying by foreign institutional investors.

FIIs hope that India's new government will effect key economic reforms. The Nifty ended

at a record closing high of 7583.40, up 109.30 points or 1.5%. Intraday, it traded between

7497.65 and a lifetime high of 7592.70.

The Sensex ended at its highest closing level of 25396.46, up 376.95 points or 1.5%. En

route, it touched a lifetime intraday high of 25419.14 from a low of 25129.76. With

indices breaching key resistance levels and entering bull territory, market participants

said it is difficult to predict an upside level for indices.

However, some said the Nifty may cross 7600 levels next week. The options data too

indicates more upside for the index. Call options across 7600 strike to 7800 strike have

seen addition in open interest today. Also, significant addition in open interest was seen

in 7500 and 7600 put options, indicating the underlying positive sentiment. This buying

lifted the volatility index by 3.5% to 15.9825. In case of any correction, market

participants do not see sharp downside in indices and pegged 7400 as a support for the

Nifty.

Apart from keeping an eye on the ongoing Parliament session, investors will look at

overseas markets as the key US jobs data for May.

On the domestic front, India's industrial production data or the Index of Industrial

Production for April, and inflation level based on the Consumer Price Index for May, will

be detailed on Thursday.

Realty and capital goods stocks will continue to head north, but activity will be seen more

in mid-cap stocks in these segments.

The rally in mid-cap and small-cap stocks is expected to continue but market participants

recommend selective buying in these spaces. Investors should pick stocks of companies

with strong earnings visibility, leadership position and sound balance sheet.

(For Sectorwise Weekly Outlook Watch: www.rupeedesk.in)